Australian Importers | 13 May 2026

Hello everyone,

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, blank sailings are tightening space on China-Australia services, airfreight rates are significantly up year on year, and domestic cartage costs continue to climb. On the positive side, BMSB season has wrapped up for another year.
We have also included a forward-looking section this edition – peak season is closer than it may feel, and the current environment means early action is more important than ever. As always, Rob, Mike or Rosalie are happy to talk through anything that may affect your shipments.
A reminder that VoxGroup supports warehousing, 3PL and full linehaul out of Melbourne alongside our customs and international forwarding services – keeping your supply chain connected from the wharf through to final delivery.

Strait of Hormuz – current status
The Strait remains effectively closed. A brief announcement of opening in mid-April was reversed the following day, and Iran has since established a formal authority to vet and tax vessels seeking passage – widely considered a violation of international maritime law. A US naval escort operation in early May saw only two vessels successfully transit before being suspended pending negotiations. The US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
Outlook: mine clearing alone is estimated to take up to six months once conditions allow. War risk insurance remains unavailable for Gulf transit. Treat Cape of Good Hope routing as the default for any Gulf-origin cargo for the foreseeable future.

Fuel costs and surcharges
Emergency Bunker Surcharges remain active from all major carriers on Asia-Australia trades, adding 10 to 25% on top of contracted base rates. Intra-Asia rates – which feed directly into Australia-bound volumes – are up approximately 10% over the past fortnight as higher bunker costs flow through to short-haul trades. The base rate alone does not reflect the full picture right now –  all current surcharges should be factored into landed cost calculations before committing to orders or requoting customers.

Ocean freight –  China and Asia to Australia
Space has tightened noticeably. The blank sailing rate on Australia services has risen to approximately 11.9% of planned departures – up from under 9.5% during Lunar New Year – reflecting deliberate carrier capacity management. Some carriers are redeploying vessels to higher-rated trades, contributing to more frequent rollovers and softer schedule reliability.
Asia-Europe spot rates are up as much as 20% week on week on some indices. Transpacific rates are more modest at 3 to 5%. Asia-Australia lanes are following with gradual upward pressure. Book at least four weeks ahead and build rollover buffer into your planning.

Singapore and transhipment hubs
Singapore delays have eased from their March peak but congestion persists, particularly for North Asia cargo. Reefer space and equipment availability remain under pressure. Congestion has also spread to alternative hubs including Colombo, Salalah and Mundra as cargo diverts away from the Gulf. Importers routing via Fremantle and Adelaide –  more reliant on transhipment connections –  should allow additional schedule buffer. Book at least four weeks ahead, particularly for LCL cargo.

Domestic cartage
Costs remain up 25 to 35% year on year –  a structural reset, not a temporary spike. Of note this fortnight, Maersk has implemented an Intermodal Fuel Fee lifting landside transport costs approximately 16 to 17% nationwide. Surcharges on container cartage and final delivery continue to be adjusted frequently. If your landed cost model has not been updated recently, now is the time.

Air freight – capacity and rates by region
Capacity that had partially recovered through late April was set back again by fresh airspace restrictions in early May. Current status:

• Iran, Iraq, Syria: fully closed
• UAE: recovered to 70 to 90% of normal by early May, now experiencing renewed disruption following the most recent attacks
• Kuwait: recently reopened with limited operations after nearly two months of closure
• Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan: partial or restricted operations
• Israel: largely closed, limited pre-approved cargo only

Global air cargo capacity is down 12 to 16%. Spot rates are up around 45% year on year; full-market rates up around 30%. Rates are considered to have peaked, with a gradual easing expected – though recovery is months away. By region:

• Middle East, South Asia and Africa: up 37 to 63% year on year
• Europe: up approximately 31%, with war risk surcharges of USD$0.20 to $0.50 per kg adding to base costs. Some carriers have grounded aircraft due to fuel costs
• Asia Pacific: up approximately 24 to 28%
• North America: up approximately 52%

Where lead times allow, sea freight is worth considering as an alternative to air.

Rate direction –  indicative only

• China and Hong Kong to Australia: Increasing. Blank sailings driving space tightness and upward rate pressure
• Europe and UK to Australia: Persistently elevated, up approximately 15 to 20% year on year, with Cape rerouting adding 10 to 14 days transit
• USA West Coast to Australia: Modest upward movement of 3 to 5%
• USA East Coast to Australia: Modest upward movement, tariff uncertainty adding unpredictability
• India to Australia: Increasing, compounded by dual chokepoint disruption

Rates are expected to remain elevated while Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions persist.

Australian port operations
Ports are operating without major disruption. Schedule variability is upstream-driven. Monitor demurrage and detention closely –  delayed vessel arrivals can generate unexpected storage costs quickly.

Peak season alert – act now
Peak shipping season – typically August through to early January – is now less than three months away. In a normal year this would be manageable with standard lead times. This is not a normal year.
The current environment of blank sailings, elevated surcharges and reduced schedule reliability means peak season 2026 will arrive on top of an already strained market. Carriers are expected to implement Peak Season Surcharges of 20 to 30% on top of rates that are already elevated. Space on preferred sailings will tighten significantly from late June onwards.
Our practical advice for importers planning Q3 and Q4 inventory:

• Begin placing peak season bookings by end of June at the latest – ideally earlier. Waiting until July or August this year carries real risk of rollovers and premium pricing
• Build a buffer of 10 to 15% above your current freight quotes into any pricing you are committing to for Q2-Q3 delivery – surcharge volatility makes precise cost modelling difficult right now
• Move your standard booking lead time out to five to seven weeks rather than the usual three to four
• Review your cargo insurance cover – with more cargo moving through congested hubs and LCL shipments passing through more hands, comprehensive cover is more important than usual. War risk coverage gaps also apply to certain routes
• If you have airfreight-dependent lines, consider whether sea freight alternatives are viable for replenishment stock – the airfreight rate environment is likely to remain challenging through Q2 and into Q3

If you would like to talk through your peak season planning, our team is ready to help. The earlier we can work through your requirements, the more options we have available.

Biosecurity
BMSB season concluded 1 May 2026. Any consignments shipped between 1 September 2025 and 30 April 2026 are still subject to treatment and inspection requirements on arrival. Goods shipped from 1 May onwards are clear.

Dates to note

• Dragon Boat Festival (China) –  31 May 2026: Confirm dispatch schedules with suppliers now
• Memorial Day (USA) –  26 May 2026: Allow extra time for documentation and booking confirmations
• UK and European bank holidays vary through May and June: Check with suppliers whether upcoming holidays affect dispatch schedules

A final note

The combination of ongoing disruption and an approaching peak season makes this a critical planning window for Australian importers. Those who act early will have more options and better pricing than those who wait. We know it’s a lot to navigate right now but please feel free to reach out to Rob, Mike or Rosalie at any time, we’re always happy to help.

VoxGroup is a market-leading international trade consultancy, customs and logistics company.
Contact us on (02) 8036-8450 or via www.voxgroup.com.au.

Warm regards,
The VoxGroup Team