2 March 2026

Welcome

Welcome to our clients and partners. As we move into early March, global supply chains continue to be shaped less by seasonal demand and more by geopolitical escalation, security risks and operational disruption.

Since 1 January 2026, importers have been operating in an environment where freight capacity is generally available, but delivery timelines and service reliability remain unpredictable. Over the past two weeks in particular, this uncertainty has been amplified by a sharp escalation in global risk that is now flowing directly into Australian supply chains.

US–Israel strikes on Iran: impacts for Australian imports

The most significant global development in the last fortnight has been the joint US and Israeli military strikes on Iran commencing 28 February 2026, followed by immediate Iranian retaliation across the region. This escalation has materially altered the risk landscape for shipping, aviation and energy markets.

From a logistics perspective, the most critical outcome has been the severe restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles approximately one‑fifth of the world’s seaborne oil movements, as well as significant container traffic. Major container lines have instructed vessels to seek shelter, suspended Gulf transits, and in some cases halted new bookings into the region. Vessels already inside the Gulf have faced difficulty exiting, creating congestion and cascading disruption across global shipping networks.

For Australian importers, the implications are indirect but significant:

• Extended vessel diversions on Europe–Asia and Asia–Europe services as carriers avoid Hormuz, the Red Sea and Suez
• Longer transit times, with Cape of Good Hope routings adding weeks to some services
• Higher insurance, security and operational surcharges
• Further deterioration in schedule reliability, particularly for cargo connecting into Australia via Asia or Europe

This remains a rapidly evolving situation, with elevated risk expected to persist through March and potentially beyond.

Airspace closures and airfreight constraints

The same conflict has triggered widespread Middle Eastern airspace closures, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE. With Europe–Asia routings already constrained due to other geopolitical factors, airlines have been forced onto longer and more congested flight paths.

For Australian‑bound airfreight, this has resulted in:

• Reduced effective capacity, particularly ex‑Europe and ex‑Middle East hubs
• Longer uplift times and increased risk of missed connections
• Priority allocation of space to defence, medical and time‑critical cargo

While airfreight services continue to operate, importers should expect ongoing space pressure and variability in uplift reliability.

China and post–Chinese New Year conditions

Chinese New Year in mid‑February continues to influence current shipping conditions. Factory restarts have been uneven, while carriers have actively managed capacity through blank sailings, port omissions and service adjustments.

Although overall capacity remains available, Australian importers are seeing:

• Increased risk of rolled cargo
• Missed transhipment connections
• Variable arrival windows into Australian ports

These challenges are most evident for cargo booked late in the pre‑CNY period or reliant on transhipment hubs.

Transhipment delays: Singapore to Australia

Singapore remains operational but highly sensitive to upstream disruption. Even relatively short dwell times are translating into missed feeder connections when mainline vessels arrive late or feeder services are cancelled or rescheduled.

Australian‑bound cargo transhipping via Singapore continues to experience irregular transit times, particularly on Asia–Australia services.

Australian port operations (current status) & rising wharf/transport costs

Australian ports have remained operational, but the recurring theme continues to be inconsistency and higher landside and terminal cost pressure. Industry feedback consistently highlights rising terminal access charges and transport‑related fees as a persistent challenge for importers — even in periods where ocean freight conditions appear more favourable.

Congestion snapshots around late February showed several Australian ports, including Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Fremantle and Adelaide, registering around two days of congestion. While not extreme, this becomes meaningful when combined with tight receival windows, limited slot availability and busy container parks.

What this means for you: landside cost build‑up — including storage, wharf‑related fees and transport surcharges — can quickly become the largest driver of total landed cost, overtaking the ocean freight component itself.

Freight rate trends – directional overview

China / Hong Kong → Australia

• Current: Fluctuating, with volatility driven by blank sailings and post‑Chinese New Year recovery
• Outlook: Continued variability through March, with reliability a greater challenge than rate stability

USA West Coast → Australia

• Current: Generally stable
• Outlook: Stable, with occasional schedule disruption

USA East Coast → Australia

• Current: Stable, though exposed to wider global network delays
• Outlook: Stable with ongoing transit‑time variability

UK / Europe → Australia

• Current: Fluctuating, impacted by rerouting, congestion and geopolitical risk
• Outlook: Mixed, with extended routings continuing to affect reliability

LCL cargo (all origins)

• Current: More volatile than FCL due to consolidation and deconsolidation delays
• Outlook: Ongoing variability into March

Operational reminder: demurrage and empty container planning

We remind all clients that container demurrage typically commences from container availability or discharge, not from customs clearance or delivery booking.

To minimise unnecessary cost exposure:

• Advise us as early as possible when cargo is approaching discharge
• Plan and book empty container collection early, particularly during periods of port congestion
• Factor in weekends, public holidays and terminal booking constraints when planning returns

Early engagement is critical and can significantly reduce avoidable demurrage, detention and storage charges.

How we support your supply chain

VoxGroup provides integrated 3PL, transport and linehaul services as part of our end‑to‑end logistics capability. Our Melbourne‑based facilities and transport network support routine container movements, storage, distribution and onward delivery, while also providing flexibility when volumes fluctuate or schedules shift.

This integrated approach allows us to support clients consistently across both stable and disrupted market conditions, helping maintain flow through the supply chain and manage timing and cost exposure.

Warm regards,
VoxGroup

VoxGroup is a market‑leading international trade consultancy, customs and logistics company.
For further information contact us on (02) 8036‑8450 or send us a message via www.voxgroup.com.au.

Please feel free to contact Rob, Mike or Rosalie