Market Update

For Australian Importing & Exporting Clients
Current as at: 1 April 2026

Welcome

Welcome to this latest market update. We recognise that, for many importers and exporters, the past few months have been demanding from both a planning and cost‑management perspective. Ongoing fuel volatility, shifting schedules and uneven recovery across global and local supply chains continue to make forward decisions more complex than usual.

While capacity remains available across most major trade lanes, the greater challenge for many businesses has been navigating variability — in transit times, in pricing inputs and in how quickly local conditions can change. Our aim with this update is to provide clear, practical context around what we are seeing, what may lie ahead, and how these conditions may translate into day‑to‑day impacts for Australian cargo owners.

VoxGroup continues to support clients across international freight, customs, domestic transport and warehousing. In the current environment, flexibility and informed support across these touchpoints can make it easier to respond when plans need to adapt or conditions move faster than expected.

Cost forecasting – next 3 months 

Based on current market conditions and the extent of fuel‑ and surcharge‑related adjustments already in place, importers should consider applying region‑specific planning allowances when forecasting landed costs through April–June 2026.

Imports from China / Asia

• Ocean freight (all‑in):
  +20% to +35%
• Fuel‑linked charges (international & domestic):
  +15% to +30%, reflecting Emergency Bunker / Fuel Surcharges, rapid bunker price movements and shortened review cycles.
• Landside & cartage (Australia):
  +10% to +25%, influenced by fuel‑linked transport adjustments, landside congestion sensitivity and peak‑period inefficiencies.

Imports from Europe / UK

• Ocean freight (all‑in):
  +25% to +40%
  European‑origin cargo remains more exposed to longer routings, higher fuel burn and transhipment variability.
• Fuel‑linked charges (international & domestic):
  +20% to +35%
• Landside & cartage (Australia):
  +10% to +25%, with outcomes closely tied to vessel arrival timing and congestion windows.

Important: These figures are planning allowances, intended to support budgeting in a volatile cost environment. Actual outcomes will vary by carrier, routing, port pair, equipment type and shipment timing.

Integrated Fuel & Surcharge Update(what importers should be aware of)

Current as at 31 March 2026

What’s happening

Fuel markets have moved sharply in recent weeks, and carriers have responded by implementing Emergency Bunker / Fuel Surcharges (EBS/EFS) in addition to existing fuel recovery mechanisms. These measures are now common across long‑haul services into Australia.

Why this matters

Marine fuel pricing has increased rapidly over a short period. Prices for VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) at major global bunkering hubs have risen sharply, materially increasing carrier operating costs.

Carrier advisories continue to reference fuel availability and price volatility as the basis for these temporary surcharges, with many subject to frequent review and adjustment.

What this means in practice

Even where base freight rates appear unchanged, all‑in freight costs can move quickly as fuel‑related surcharge layers are introduced or revised. These movements are also flowing through to domestic transport and cartage, contributing to more frequent landside pricing adjustments.

Monitoring and visibility

We reiterate that freight rates, fuel movements and surcharge applications are being actively monitored on an ongoing basis, as conditions continue to evolve across both international and domestic transport networks.

In an environment where costs are adjusting more frequently, clear visibility around pricing inputs remains important. Understanding how surcharges are structured, when they apply and how they are reviewed assists with forecasting, budgeting and internal planning.

VoxGroup continues to work closely with carriers, terminals and transport providers to maintain clarity around these inputs and to support clients with lane‑specific cost context as conditions change.

Broader market and operational context

Port and landside conditions (Australia)

Australian ports remain operational, though weather events, vessel bunching and labour availability continue to drive short‑term variability. Where disruption occurs, delays can compound quickly before gradually unwinding, particularly following overseas holiday shutdowns.

Landside conditions remain one of the more variable components of the supply chain. While major terminal tariffs generally move on scheduled cycles, the effective landed cost to importers can change more frequently due to fuel‑linked cartage reviews, congestion‑driven dwell time, storage exposure and operational pass‑throughs.

Domestic fuel surcharges are being reviewed frequently, in some cases every few days, in response to ongoing fuel price movement.

Landside pricing and industry advocacy update

Over the past two weeks, no new formal landside charge increases have been announced or published by major Australian container stevedores, with all known changes continuing to relate to earlier notices, primarily those issued in late 2025 and effective from 1 January 2026, as well as Hutchison Ports’ previously advised changes scheduled for 20 April 2026. At the same time, industry bodies including Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA) and the Australian Peak Shippers Association (APSA) continue to engage with government through consultations linked to the review of the National Voluntary Guidelines for Landside Stevedore Charges, including consideration of empty container park (ECP) charges; while no immediate regulatory changes have been confirmed, landside charges, terminal access fees and advocacy developments remain under close monitoring, and clients will be advised of any material updates.

Capacity and reliability

Vessel space is broadly available across core trades; however, schedule reliability remains inconsistent, particularly on transhipment‑dependent services. Rolled cargo risk increases around peak periods, holiday clusters and network re‑balancing, even where headline capacity appears adequate.

Airfreight markets have also been affected by airspace and routing constraints, reducing effective uplift on some corridors and increasing rate volatility for time‑critical cargo.

Key Dates to Watch – Upcoming International Holidays

The following international holiday periods may impact factory output, cut‑offs, shipping schedules, port productivity and recovery timelines:

• Easter (Western): Good Friday 3 April 2026; Easter Monday 6 April 2026
• China Labour Day holiday period:1–5 May 2026
• Ascension Day (many European markets):14 May 2026
• Whit Monday / Pentecost Monday (many European markets):25 May 2026
• China Dragon Boat Festival:19–21 June 2026

Planning note: These periods often compress cut‑offs, increase rollover risk and slow network recovery. Allowing buffer time and securing bookings early can help reduce exposure where cargo timing is critical.

Final note

This remains a shipping environment defined less by outright shortages and more by inconsistency — in costs, schedules and recovery timeframes. Staying informed and allowing room for flexibility continue to be important parts of managing both operational risk and budget expectations.

If you would like to talk through what current market conditions may mean for your specific lanes, shipment profiles or planning assumptions, our team is always happy to assist. Even a brief discussion can often help clarify sensitivities and identify where contingencies may be useful.

Thank you for your continued trust in VoxGroup. We look forward to supporting you as conditions continue to evolve.

Warm regards,
VoxGroup

VoxGroup is a market‑leading international trade consultancy, customs and logistics company.

📞 (02) 8036 8450
🌐 www.voxgroup.com.au

Please feel free to contact Rob, Mike or Rosalie