Trade & logistics update – 14 to 21 September 2026

Hello and welcome. Honestly, a lot of the shipping news cycle right now is the same story on repeat – so rather than rehash headlines you’ve likely already seen, we’ve focused this fortnight on what’s actually moved, what hasn’t (and why that still matters), and what it means for your next booking. If any of it touches your supply chain directly, just get in touch – details at the end. (And on that note: with Melbourne just posting a record FY2026 – 3.52 million TEU, up 3.8% – if more of your volume is moving through the city, VoxGroup’s own 3PL warehousing and linehaul distribution out of Melbourne might be worth a chat.)

1. Global Trade & Geopolitical Snapshot

Issue

• Houthi forces completed a full takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb strait and surrounding Red Sea islands on 9-11 September, forcing continued Cape of Good Hope routing for cautious carriers.
• Separately, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic – over 200 days now, running at roughly 9% of normal throughput.

What This Means

• Despite the takeover, COSCO, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and MSC have quietly begun sending vessels back through Suez since mid-September (Canal tonnage is up over 50% Jan–Aug versus last year) – each carrier reserving the right to reverse that decision if Red Sea security deteriorates. It’s a real shift, but a fragile one; we wouldn’t bank on it holding.

Action

• The real risk isn’t today’s numbers – it’s a sudden escalation that removes capacity overnight. If you haven’t stress-tested your supply chain against a 2-4 week total closure of Hormuz, now is a good time to.

2. Middle East Conflict – Rates, Oil & Fuel

Issue

• One major domestic carrier network’s fuel levy has effectively doubled within a month – adding roughly 11% to total shipping costs on affected freight, almost overnight.

What This Means

• This is a structural cost shift, not a short spike – industry guidance is to plan for 12-36 months of elevated pricing.
• New surcharges can land on already-booked cargo with little warning.

Action

• Factor elevated fuel and freight costs into medium-term budgeting, not just today’s quote.
• Ask us to confirm the latest surcharge position before finalising costings on any lane.

3. Ocean Freight Rates – Regional Snapshot

LCL moves with FCL on each lane below, just with less room to negotiate ex-China/India.

Action

• China and Australia-bound lanes: firm to rising into October (Golden Week) – lock in bookings now. Europe/UK: softening, less urgency.

4. Container Space & Booking – Shanghai/Ningbo in Detail

Issue

• Five typhoons in a row (Bavi, Noul, Dolphin, Narra, Saudel) have pushed Shanghai/Ningbo berthing delays to 7-10 days (~135 vessels waiting at Shanghai, ~100 at Ningbo).
• 3.92 million TEU held up globally – 11% of the world’s container fleet; some carriers are pausing or restricting bookings on China-origin sailings to manage the backlog.

Action

• The real squeeze is timing, not just congestion: Mid-Autumn Festival (25-27 Sept) and Golden Week (1-7 Oct) leave only three working days between them, so factories are compressing a month’s production into early September while carriers simultaneously blank sailings through the break. Get bookings in 3-4 weeks ahead of your sailing date, not the usual lead time, to avoid rolled cargo.

5. Transhipment Delays – Singapore & India

Issue

• Singapore: hub congestion is squeezing space into Fremantle specifically; some carriers are pausing bookings to clear backlogs.
• India: Nhava Sheva (BMCT) is facing heavy gate congestion (trailers waiting several hours for gate-in), yard congestion, and driver/equipment shortages; onward transhipment via Colombo is adding further, variable delay.

What This Means

• India-origin cargo should be expected to run longer and less predictably than usual.
• Fremantle-bound cargo via Singapore is currently harder to secure space on than cargo to Australia’s east coast.

Action

• Allow extra lead time on India-origin and Fremantle-bound bookings.
• Keep in close contact with us on vessel cut-offs for these lanes.

6. Wharf, Fuel & Transport Costs

Issue

• Cartage and fuel-related transport costs are going up across Sydney and Melbourne, and have been all year.
• New carrier surcharges – fuel, congestion, and on some lanes war-risk – keep landing with little to no notice.

What This Means

• Landed cost can shift materially between quote and shipment without warning.

Action

• Confirm the current surcharge position on your specific carrier and lane with us before finalising costings.

7. Biosecurity – BMSB Season Now Live

Issue

• The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) risk season is running 1 September 2026 – 30 April 2027 for goods from target-risk countries (machinery, vehicles, equipment, metal products, used goods).

What This Means

• Not every shipment automatically needs treatment – it depends on origin, route and commodity – but non-compliant cargo faces holds, mandatory onshore treatment and delays.

Action

• Confirm your goods’ country of origin and full shipping route now, and arrange offshore treatment and certification before departure wherever required.

8. Upcoming Holidays to Watch

Issue

• Chuseok (South Korea): 24–26 September — this week.
• Golden Week (China): 1–7 October — most factories and many logistics providers close for the full week.
• Japan: Sports Day 12 October · Culture Day 3 November · Labor Thanksgiving Day 23 November.
• Thanksgiving (United States): 26 November.
• Christmas and New Year (global): 25 December – 1 January — widespread port, customs and warehouse slowdowns, including reduced Australian Border Force and biosecurity processing capacity.
• Lunar New Year (China and broader East/South-East Asia): 6 February 2027.

What This Means

• China-origin bookings made in the next two weeks are racing the Golden Week cut-off; anything planned for early February should already factor in Lunar New Year.

Action

• Get your October and pre-Lunar New Year orders in early — we are happy to help plan a shipping calendar around both.

That’s the fortnight in brief. VoxGroup is a market-leading international trade consultancy, customs and logistics company. For further information, please contact us on (02) 8036-8450 or via www.voxgroup.com.au — or feel free to reach out to Rob, Mike or Rosalie directly.